The characteristics that predict progression to overt chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in smokers without spirometric airflow obstruction are not clearly defined.

We conducted a post hoc analysis of 849 current and former smokers (≥20 pack–years) with preserved spirometry from the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort who had baseline computed tomography (CT) scans of lungs and serial spirometry. We examined whether CT-derived lung volumes representing air trapping could predict adverse respiratory outcomes and more rapid decline in spirometry to overt COPD using mixed-effect linear modelling.


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